Is not necessarily my friend.
Saudi Arabia gives Israel clear skies to attack Iranian nuclear sites - Times Online
Israeli intelligence experts say that Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan are at least as worried as themselves and the West about an Iranian nuclear arsenal.Israel has sent missile-class warships and at least one submarine capable of launching a nuclear warhead through the Suez Canal for deployment in the Red Sea within the past year, as both a warning to Iran and in anticipation of a possible strike. Israeli newspapers reported last year that high-ranking officials, including the former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, have met their Saudi Arabian counterparts to discuss the Iranian issue. It was also reported that Meir Dagan, the head of Mossad, met Saudi intelligence officials last year to gain assurances that Riyadh would turn a blind eye to Israeli jets violating Saudi airspace during the bombing run. Both governments have denied the reports.
Of course they have.
Simply put, the ME is a bunch of feuding tribes... or perhaps redneck families. (And yes, this includes Israel. They're the ones who went off to the military, and came back with money, a work ethic, and the willingness (and ability) to kick ass if need be in order to be left in peace. The others don't much like them, but they serve as a focus for their discontent, and they're also gradually learning newfangled ways from them.) Iran's the crazy uncle, that shows up angry all the time and wants to start fights. Iraq USED to have that role, being a bit crazier, but after getting a 2x4 alongside the head has figured out that maybe it's time to tone down the crazy before the next head whack earns a split skull instead of a concussion.
Problem is, crazy uncle Iran's lately been waving a shotgon around, threatening to kill everyone in the family he doesn't like. And this includes pretty much everyone.
The police (the UN) are telling everyone nearby it's not a problem, that everything is as it should be and there's nothing wrong - every time they go over and talk to Iran it's all good and nothing's too out of shape or unusual. The family knows different, however - it's just a matter of time until Iran loads up the shotgun and starts blasting indiscriminately.
Now they're expecting Israel to, tacitly, take care of the problem. But here's the question...
Will they? I'm doubtful. I don't think Israel's leadership's got a collective death wish - not in the slightest. But why should THEY have to take care of it? I picture them much like Mr. Incredible in the opening sequences of the movie in the interview. "I just cleaned this mess up - can I have just 5 minutes before something else happens I've got to fix?"
So maybe they're not so eager to hit Iran. It can't have escaped their notice that the folks who've formerly condemned Iran for trying to get nukes (IE the Bush administration) isn't exactly all that hot at this point to tackle the issue now. (Yep, Obama's admin.)
In the past, when someone in the area goes insane (like Syria, Lebanon, Libya) the neighbors DON'T attempt to take care of the problems themselves - but instead look to the US and the UN. (But look to the UN, and you might as well give up any idea about actually solving a crisis, or even a minor problem. It simply won't happen.)
So that leaves the US to take care of it. However... we've already seen that the current administration is NOT of a sort which can make hard decisions. Or somewhat difficult decisions. Or even easy ones, for that matter. Unless it's to raise taxes and pass bills that are unlikely to produce anything that they're ostensibly designed for.
Would the US do a unilateral strike on Iran? It's pretty much unthinkable.
So it may come to a point where Israel, for its own survival, will have to take out the nuclear facilities in Iran. And at that time, it will recieve the public condemnation of the world... but the neighbors in that area are going to be thanking them under the table.
And there's a couple of other things...
First, we know how to build nuclear weapons, at this point. However, delivery systems are actually more complicated. Iran's planning on using missiles - but those missiles aren't exactly well tested. And what would the error be on the guidance systems? Iran may well be looking at any misses in the area as still being hits. They hit the West Bank accidentally? The Jews did it. They hit Lebanon? The Jews did it. They hit Gaza? Hey, it's the Jews! Egypt? Jews. Syria? Jews. Saudi? Jews. Iraq? Must have been the Jews. And the average joe who gets his news from some insane mullah seven times a day will gladly believe it's Israel that did it. The leaderhsip will know better - but their survival depends on keeping the people happy, and they know it.
The second thing... you recall how Pakistan and India were always having border conflicts? They kept poking at each other... and then they both got nukes. The border conflicts STOPPED.
They had to grow up. Fast. It could be (and I'm not really expecting it) that the Iranian leadership will look at the nukes they created and go "Okay, all this 12th Iman bullshit... we start a nuclear war, he shows up, we get Islam ascendant over the world... you really believe that?" "No." "Me neither. We've let it go far too long, and way too far. It's time for us to grow up - we use this, and we destroy ourselves."
Iran may grow up - or it may not, and lash out at all its enemies. (Pretty much everyone except North Korea, and they're on a watch list.)
It's interesting times, to be sure. I could wish they weren't QUITE so interesting...
J.