Rusted Sky

Hillary gets a NY Senate seat because there is no real Republican party there. Some good people who call themselves Republicans, yes, and they win based on merit or lack of same.... but Hillary is only 'from' NY the same way she is 'from' AK: she makes a good Chicagoan. The term 'carpetbagger' has been used by some few folks in NY State to describe her and Bill.

Rudy is from New Yawk. The NY State head-to-head should be interesting there if they both get to the top of the ticket for their parties, which I have many doubts about.

Interesting that for all the Romney push he runs right up there with 'No Opinion'. Yes, tied with 'No Opinion'! And Newt is beating out 'None' by 1%!

The top 3 on the R side have definite problems heading into the Primary season next year. First it is basically an abbreviated Primary season, and the shouting is over by the end of FEB 2008 so it is six weeks long at most, and there is a good likelihood it will be only 3-4 weeks long. The effect of the States to all push Primaries up is to create, basically, a National Primary. That means a National campaign set up by NOV 2007. And even with the internet, 6 months for fund raising gets you to... why NOW! By mid-JUN 2007 the door will be, basically, closed as the fund raising season will be packed with candidates and every one of them scrambling to get a National campaign up. Money is important, but finding volunteer staff is critical, which is why name recognition and appealing message *now* is important. They must both be available in nearly equal amounts by NOV 2007. That is why Obama has kicked off his first adds to try and restore his glamor as 'appealing unknown that you aren't liking too much as you know me so please forget about it'.

Rudy, Hillary and Obama 'get it'. McCain, Edwards and basically everyone save Newt and Fred T. don't. Newt understands the old political cycle, which means he will get no traction by SEP 2007. Newt actually needs to read a few of the books out on this, like Reynold's Army of Davids. Fred Thompson is waging the 'name recognition' fight now via the New Media and getting around the Mass Media. That may or may not work and it does not point to his ability to fund raise on a National scale.

The Democrats are realizing that Hillary's negatives are rock-solid and a non-winner as they cap how far her positives can go.

The Republicans don't much like Rudy, as he is not a social conservative and has some failings on understand that being President is *not* super-Mayor. If he would start approaching other Nations as being corrupt Democratic machines with the mafia behind them, he would get further in his ability to address the problems of Presidency.

McCain has blown out tires of the 'Straight Talk Express' in its multiple bootlegger reverses over time. Hard to know if it is coming or going, but its time has definitely gone. He has put on so many hats that his hat collection now dwarfs anything Imelda Marcos had in the way of shoes. Outside of strict warfare he has been pro/anti *everything* that has come up since he first entered politics. Feet planted firmly on both sides of the fence with the pain being right in the middle.

I am sure the MSM will anoint a 'dark horse' by NOV 2007 for each side. And that will also remain in the dark for the campaign.

This is the season of fund raising and organization building. If you don't have both by NOV 2007, give it up. IA and NH no longer mean choosing front runner: they are only one to two weeks ahead of the National steamroller. The last four elections have removed them as discriminators, and they may just get treated as side-shows to the main event.