Rusted Sky

Is only as good as the inputs.

New Phytoplankton Model May Revise Warming Estimates

Global climate models are missing a good chunk of plant information that could significantly alter long-term climate change predictions. A new technique for modeling phytoplankton -- microscopic plants in the upper layers of the Earth's waters -- could reveal a much more accurate picture.

"(Other) modelers have populated their oceans with three or four kinds of plants, said Mick Follows, a researcher in MIT's Program in Atmospheres, Oceans and Climate. "We’ve represented a much more diverse community, and allowed it to have interactions that regulate it more naturally."

Phytoplankton populations are constantly changing, which makes them difficult to predict. So the MIT researchers developed an algorithm using evolutionary principles to more accurately represent the microscopic plants. A more precise count is important because phytoplankton process carbon dioxide -- a significant contributor to global warming.

Scientists interviewed for this article said it's too soon to say whether the more accurate phytoplankton count will be good news or bad news for the global climate's future. But climate researchers will have a more accurate picture once they factor the new phytoplankton model into their estimates, they said.

J.