I wonder how much longer we'll have to wait?
The Australian: 'Too late' to stop N Korea's bomb [ 05oct06 ]So finally it's said, in not so many words - diplomacy works when both parties intend to adhere to the the decisions, or negotiate in good faith. When one of the two parties isn't negotiating in good faith, diplomacy only delays the inevitable.WHILE the rest of the world looks to Beijing to stop North Korea from exploding a nuclear bomb, a leading Chinese analyst says it is too late - China cannot act without doing worse harm to its own interests.
"Basically, our country's work of persuasion with the (Democratic People's Republic of Korea) in the 12 years that the DPRK developed its nuclear program had been a failure," writes highly regarded Shen Dingli, of Shanghai's Fudan University.
"The DPRK considers its national interests to be greater than its relations with China," Mr Shen says in his remarkably frank commentary, published in a newspaper of the official China Youth League and circulated yesterday by a North Korea-focused think tank, the Nautilus Institute.
And apparently, NK's leadership has decided they've delayed long enough. It's time to show the world what they've got, and magically they'll be seen as a grown-up country and they can take their place in the realmof first-world nations.... never mind they're on life support from China.
So let's see... they pop off (or attempt to pop off) a nuke. And, just hypothetically, the imports from China dry up. After all, they've demonstrated they're no longer in need of babying - they're a fully grown country now. So obviously they don't need aid from anyone else... besides, their national interests have priority over everything else. Food, fuel, industrial parts, consumer goods, medicine... nothing comes across the border.
How long do you think they'll last? And do you think they'd, um, 'blackmail' neighboring countries into supporting them? If they try that particular course of action, how long do you think it would be before the 'nuclear war' that Kim's been blathering about for so long actually happens, with them on the receiving end?
But watch - we'll do the sanctions dance again and see if it works. I'm betting it won't.
But it will delay the inevitable confrontation. And who knows what might happen, given enough time?
J.
Comments (4)
Jerry:
One question I have that I haven't seen anyone else trying to answer. Kim Jong Il is obviously a madman, and equally obviously a megalomaniac who sees himself as a Great World Leader in the mold of a Caesar or an Alexander.
Given the North Korea's Peerless Leader's unstable state of mind do you think he would be satisfied with an invisible, undramatic, and wholly scientific underground nuclear test. I am afraid the answer to that question may be no. I think Kim Jong Il wants to see that mushroom cloud towering up to the heavens as a potent symbol of his power and proof of his acendency to the global status of Nuclear Power.
I just don't see Kim Jong Il settling for a bump when he can have a BANG.
otpu
Posted by jbouler | October 5, 2006 9:07 PM
Posted on October 5, 2006 21:07
His paranoia's a given, John, and there's no doubt of it. Same thing with the megalomania - you don't get to be dictator without a certain madness to your method, and to hold on to a hereditary dictatorship requires an ego inflated beyond all normal bounds.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if he does an above-ground test. However - if it fails it'll cost him an incredible amount of face, and it could possibly mean the end of his reign. A very public failure would be the worst thing that could happen to him.
J.
Posted by JLawson | October 5, 2006 10:48 PM
Posted on October 5, 2006 22:48
China could put some heavy duty pressure on NK, as you have shown, Jerry.
But China won't do it, because they have nothing to gain by doing so.
China is not our friend, and neither is Russia.
Posted by Ben USN (Ret) | October 8, 2006 3:41 AM
Posted on October 8, 2006 03:41
I get the feeling there's more going on between China and NK than we're seeing - and Kim realizes that if he gets out of line his support is going to disappear. So for now, China's keeping their 'barking dog' around - but they aren't necessarily adverse to shooting the dog if it becomes necessary.
J.
Posted by JLawson | October 8, 2006 9:02 AM
Posted on October 8, 2006 09:02